The Electric: The Proposed Gigafactories That Will Be Built—and Those That Won't

For two or so years, there seems hardly to have been a week without the announcement of another new gigafactory somewhere. If they are all built, they will number at least in the hundreds. But that's a big "if." This week, we dive into the dozens of gigafactories proposed in the U.S. and Europe, and assess which will probably make it, and which seem unlikely to see the light of day.  

Nine years ago, Tesla surprised the world with plans for what it called a “gigafactory”—a plant that would manufacture as many electric vehicle batteries as the entire industry was making globally at the time. Other automakers and Wall Street reacted with a mixture of disbelief and derision. Tesla had sold just over 2,000 units of its first electric vehicle, the Roadster, but now was forecasting that it needed batteries for millions of EVs. When four years later Tesla opened the gigafactory in the Nevada desert, doubters still dogged the company’s ambitions, accusing it of hubris and hype.

Today, gigafactories seem to be springing up everywhere and have assumed geopolitical importance. China, the U.S. and Europe have collectively launched initiatives totaling more than a half-trillion dollars to support their home-grown battery and battery materials industries. Established companies and startups—some lacking any background in batteries, autos or metals—have announced plans for more than 340 battery plants around the world, mostly in China. Together, those plants would produce some 7,500 gigawatt-hours of capacity, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a U.K.-based battery metals research firm, up more than tenfold from 614 GWh today, and enough to make 100 to 130 million EVs a year.