Why Big Tech’s Cloud Shift Threatens Microsoft and Google’s Margins

Don’t count out Amazon. This was not the commerce cloud giant’s week, to be sure. When it comes to the great artificial intelligence cloud race, which now overwhelms all else in tech, Microsoft and Google appear to be ahead. Both companies posted accelerating growth in their cloud units for the June quarter, unlike Amazon. But one element is widely missing from the discussion: how a long-term shift in big tech’s business mix toward cloud services could squeeze profit margins for both Microsoft and Google while improving Amazon’s overall margin.

Why? Because for both Microsoft and Google, their cloud businesses are much less profitable than their giant software and advertising businesses, respectively. Microsoft’s productivity and business processes unit—which includes its business software operations—had an operating profit margin of 57.4% in the June quarter. Its “intelligent cloud” unit, which comprises mostly Azure, had a margin of 40.6%. Its overall margin was 45%. A similar scenario holds for Google: Its cloud margin was 20.7% in the June quarter, while its margin in Google services—mostly advertising—was 40% and its overall margin was 32%.