OpenAI, Forecasts and Guesses

Here’s a suggestion for OpenAI’s management: Stop issuing long-range revenue forecasts to investors. While we at The Information love getting our hands on these, as they make for good stories, it’s doubtful they’re doing OpenAI much good. How can anyone take seriously forecasts for revenue reaching as far out as 2030? (OpenAI projects total revenue will reach $284 billion by then, compared with $13 billion last year.) 

Analyst Jim Chanos is a well-known skeptic, but his suggestion in February that the company’s projections were maybe “just guesses” likely resonated with a few people. Take OpenAI’s forecasts we reported on today about the company’s expectations for advertising. They projected that ChatGPT will generate $2.4 billion in ad revenue this year, even though it only started testing ads in February. That seems ambitious, although not as ambitious as the $11 billion forecast for next year or the $102 billion for 2030.