What’s Next in Musk’s Next Twitter Drama

So we’re back to square one on Elon Musk and Twitter. Today Musk filed the securities disclosure form that he should have filed last Monday (better late than never) about his 9.1% stake in Twitter. This time, the form had the right number of Twitter shares he holds (glad he sorted that out!). And it outlined, in legal boilerplate, what seemed like a comprehensive summation of what he might do as a shareholder. That includes talking with the board and/or the management team about “potential business combinations and strategic alternatives” as well as pretty much everything else, including Twitter’s business, strategy and operations. And he may do so privately to the board and managers or through social media (which likely means Twitter itself).

With that many options on the table, we’re in for an indefinite period of intense speculation about what he’s up to. CNBC, for instance, reported today that Musk’s retreat from joining the board “opens the door to a hostile takeover” by Musk. Well, maybe. Clearly, with Musk, we can’t rule anything out. But a hostile takeover would require a serious commitment of time, not to mention money. Buying the rest of Twitter’s shares at, say, $50 a share would cost $36 billion in cash. Sure, Musk is the richest man in the world, thanks to his Tesla stake. To raise the cash necessary to buy Twitter, though, he’d likely have to sell a decent chunk of that Tesla position. A more likely option would be Musk aligning himself with another Twitter suitor.