The Electric: As 2024 Nears, Are Next-Gen Battery Companies on the Verge of a Culling?

In the 1920s, more than 700 U.S. manufacturers vied in a brutal competition to sell a new product—electric washing machines. Cheap electricity had reached urban homes, and American households snapped up the labor-saving washers, which quickly became ubiquitous. But just five U.S. washing machine manufacturers survive. It’s the same with refrigerators and waffle irons. In the 1920s, around 60 U.S. companies made the former and 85 the latter; the two devices are now made by just three U.S. manufacturers each. Similar reasons underlie all these industry bloodbaths: A large number of contenders and intense competition made it hard for any single company to reach economies of scale. Strong companies swallowed up weaker or smaller ones; some went bankrupt; others moved abroad. 

Today, I wonder how close the nascent Western battery and electric vehicle industry is to a similar culling. The U.S. EV industry launched in 2008 with the release of the Tesla Roadster, sparking the formation of at least 50 startups in the U.S. and Europe. Half of the EV companies are already either bankrupt or never really got off the ground; most of the battery companies are struggling. This year has seen a particular bout of turmoil: